#Ethereum = Weekly Analysis – Strong Bearish = 19.07.2021 $ETH #ETH #investing #cryptocurrency #crypto

$ETH is getting close to making big damage (from candles perspective). If it closes below $1707 on July 31st, the chance of never visiting this level again would increase. Let’s explore the hypothesis from various angles.

The High-Wave Doji in May was neither confirmed not rejected by the June candle. However, the first step towards confirming a multi-month decline was completed. The July candle moved below 8 EMA and RSI broke from overbought territory.
– If ETH in July closes below $1707, the prolonged decline would be set.
– A closure above $2908 would likely mean a rally is underway (very low odds).
– Anything in between, a continued horizontal development.
Odds: Strong Bearish

A few weeks ago, the Three Black Crows formation set the bearish odds. This week there is a chance to make it again. The bearish odds would increase even more.
Yesterday 8 and 20 EMA lines crossed bearishly and RSI moved below 50. Bearish events continue to pile up. Makes you think.
Until a weekly candle closes above $2100 or higher, it is tough to think bullish.
Odds: Strong Bearish

Today’s strong bearish candle completes another Falling 3 Methods and elevates the bearish odds. Last week the price moved below 200 MA and has not challenged it since. The other indicators are not yet supportive of a bullish move.
Odds: Strong Bearish

Long Term Chart

From the long term perspective, the Elliott Wave weekly chart remains the same since May 16. I have doubts that wave IV (dark blue) has completed and think that it is likely to extend for 2-6 months (alt IV).

Alt Count – Red
If ETH breaks below 1423.20, a recount of long term waves will happen. The top becomes wave V and there would be no limit for the corrective wave down. If this is the case, we could see the triple-digit prices in the nearest future. The odds are still slim, but be aware.

FORECAST & Events to Watch:

ETH is expected to continue decline. Until is breaks above $2030, there is nothing bullish in the charts or indicators.

– If ETH in July closes below $1707, a prolonged decline further down would be confirmed.
– A closure above $2908 would mean that a rally is underway (slim odds).
– Anything in between, a continued horizontal correction (Alt IV in light blue on the long term chart above).

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