#Bitcoin = Inflection Point – Road to ATH or to Oblivion? = 20.07.2021 $BTC #crypto #BTC #cryptocurrency

REPOST from Jul 11: On March 24 I forecasted BTC to fall to $29k when it was $60k and gurus were talking $100k and Moon. Now BTC enters an inflection area. Between now and July 31 it could decide its fate based on the setup in monthly candles, and I would like to discuss the hypothesis in details from different angles.

The study covers the perspectives of Japanese Candlesticks, Elliott Waves & Fibonacci levels, Classical Patterns and Statistics on technical indicators.

1. Candlesticks

The current July monthly candle has two options:
a) if the price does not make a new low, it would mean a great chance that the coin bottoms in this or in the next month. In this case, we should start to see some green weekly candles building up.
At this point, it is impossible to forecast the character of the waves and intermediate targets without having at least the first Northbound wave.

b) if the price makes a new low in July, this event would open a door to a continued decline towards $20k-25k. In case if BTC breaks through the long term support of $19870.6 even by 1 pip, this event would possibly open the path to 0 or even to the negative prices. (If you think that the negative prices are impossible, refer to WTI futures in April 2020 when they were minus $40).
This scenario is of very low probability at this point, but I would like my followers to be aware of such option.

In my study I took an example of Nortel decline (chart on top) and the candles along the way. It is not a comparison of the bankrupt telecom company to $BTC. Only the pattern and combo perspectives.

Both charts have many commonalities that are highlighted on the charts.
The crucial events:
If BTC breaks below $28901.8 before July 31, it opens a path to lower prices;
– If BTC closes below $28901.8 on July 31, there is a chance BTC follows the Nortel path;
– If BTC breaks below $19870.6 anytime, a path to much lower prices would be open.

2. Elliott Waves & Fibonacci

From the Elliott Waves perspective, the current wave has retraced lower than expected for waves IV and it is a minor concern. However, as long as the wave remains above the long term support of $19870.6, it is considered as a valid wave IV.

This chart above was designed on March 24, 2020, before the decline started. So far it plays well, and I maintain it as the main operative chart.

Recently I shared a study on timing for BTC to reach the $100k mark. The link at the bottom.

3. Classical Patterns

There are at least three possible classical patterns that BTC could develop.

a) Head & Shoulders
A few people shared it recently. While the shape indeed looks like the pattern, it is not well supported by some technical indicators at this point. I am highly skeptical about the shape and, in particular, about the perspective target of minus $6.8k.

b) Rectangle
The shape of waves over the last 2 months can be viewed as a rectangle. If a rectangle is broken downwards, the price is expected to move the same distance as the height of the rectangle. Sometimes, the distance doubles. The red targets on the chart – $22400 and $13200.

c) Flag
It is also possible that BTC is developing a bearish flag. In this case, the target area for the flag pole would be $12100 in green.

We continue to keep in mind the Long Term Support of $19870.6.

4. Statistical

The last area I would like to touch is statistics associated with some recent and possible events.

The Tower Top formation on the monthly chart and the Bearish Engulfing combos on the monthly are usually followed by one or more months of decline. It’s been over a month since this happened and the minimal target has been achieved.

The daily Death Cross of 100/200 MA that is about to happen in the next few days occurred previously in 2018 and 2019. In both cases, the event was followed, respectively, by 12 and 4 months of lower prices. While this small sample is statistically insignificant, we should keep the possible outcome in mind.


The next three weeks will be crucial and these are the levels to watch:
– If BTC breaks below $28901.8 before July 31, it opens a path to lower prices;
– If BTC closes below $28901.8 on July 31, there is a chance that BTC follows the Nortel path;
– If BTC breaks below $19870.6 anytime, a path to much lower prices would be open.

Note that the above levels are from the feed to Investing.com. The exact levels could be slightly different for different feeds.

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Call BTC to $29k on March 24, 2020:

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