$BTC is approaching the reversal area, likely forming a diagonal. Reversal area – $41000-43500. Timing – next 48 hours. Let’s explore some details.
From the weekly forecast on Saturday: “There is a possibility that $BTC makes 4-6 more green days.” $BTC made 8 in total. Check!
The Weekly Analysis – link at the end of this post.
Today’s candle is a High-Wave doji that appeared after a strong rally. The odds are bearish. The question is when exactly a pullback happens.
The price today was again rejected at 50d MA. The daily indicators show signs of bearishness.
The weekly and monthly candles are turning bullish and the odds of completing this week/month as green have increased.
– If $BTC closes below $39950, the bearish reversal confirmed.
– If $BTC closes above $40862, the rally continues (low probability).
– Any closure between, a decision postponed for 1-2 days.
I mentioned in the Micro Path update today that the $BTC was likely forming an ending diagonal for wave v. For a standard diagonal, it needs to hit one more higher high. However, there is also a chance it falls short (truncates). In the latter case, a pullback is expected more severe.
Target area for the top of wave v – $41000-43500.
Timing – next 48 hours. As I type, there are enough waves to consider the rally complete (with truncation) and a pullback can start any minute now.
I believe the top should happen before the month end for various reasons.
If the current wave completes as a diagonal, expect a rather quick retrace to $36400-36500 and possibly lower. I would need to see the beginning of the pullback to determine the targets.
I am very curious about the monthly and weekly candles that will be formed on Saturday. There are several options for both bullish and bearish continuation, depending on the formations.
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Previous Monthly Analysis: