$XAU = Gold: Monthly Analysis = 31.07.2021 #GOLD #preciousmetals $GDX $GLD #XAUUSD #GC_F

Gold has not made a decision about direction in July. It neither confirmed nor rejected the Dark Cloud Cover of June. The odds are still with bears. Let’s explore the hypothesis from different angles.

In June gold formed a solid Dark Cloud Cover. In July, it made a rather weak Thrusting Line candle. It managed to close above 8m EMA and this is the only bullish factor. Until the last day, gold had a chance to form a much stronger bullish candle, but did not push hard enough. The technical indicators continue to stay bearish, however, there is a chance of a shift next month.
I continue to maintain the bearish outlook until the red candle of June is canceled.
Odds: Bearish

The weekly frame continues to be under strong bearish pressure from the 7-week Tower Top formed on June 18. While some indicators show signs of turning bullish, the overall stance is bearish.
This week gold started a promising rally that was brutally rejected on Friday. As the result, this week candle is just a consolidation one.
Over a month ago I forecasted that gold would be developing horizontally within a $1750-1815 channel. It still does. A definite break through a boundary will likely set a direction.
Odds: Neutral-Bearish

On Friday, gold made a perfect Bearish Harami combo that is a strong bearish one. While the majority of indicators are barely on the bullish side, the candle theory considers the odds on the bears side.
This formation requires a confirmation and I consider the overall odds as neutral until a direction is set.
Odds: Neutral

Elliott Waves

In the beginning of July I projected a possible shape of the corrective wave B/2 that I viewed to extend into the end of month. It looks like that forecast was very close to the real wave A/1-B/2 gold formed in July. The charts above are made on July 6 and now.
I view the rally off the bottom of wave A/1 as corrective and, therefore, would expect one more motive or a diagonal wave down.

Below is a short term projection of such a wave. Operative targets: $1550-1650.

The blue counts represent the possible continuation of a rally, though the odds are very slim.

Long Term Fractals:
The chart below compares gold, its waves, candles and indicators in 2012 and 2021. There are numerous similarities and it would not be a surprise if gold decays further to $1730-1420 area, based on the most typical Fibonacci retrace levels. This is the monthly chart and the completion of wave C might take a year or more.


Gold was damaged greatly in June on the monthly and weekly frames. The odds are still on the dark side.

If the daily Bearish Harami confirms at the beginning of the month, there is a good chance of a continued decline in August, targeting $1550-1650 by the end of month.

If gold is going to make a bottom and reverse, we should see the bullish candles at least on the weekly charts.

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