#Bitcoin = Monthly Analysis = 01.08.2021 $BTC #BTC #crypto #cryptocurrency #investing #trading #charts #ElliottWave

As forecasted, this week $BTC reached $40k and closed the month and week with very promising bullish candles and combos. Let’s explore all details from different angles.


The July candle made a full Bearish Engulfing, closing a few hundred points above the June high. The price is back above 8 EMA line.
The move is well supported by technical indicators and at least one month of higher prices is expected.
Odds: Bullish

The Bullish Engulfing of previous week was followed by a strong Maribozu continuation candle. The candle closed above 8 and 20 EMA lines on a higher volume. RSI and other indicators support the move and further advance is expected.
However, as the rally happened too fast and too far, it is possible that $BTC rests for 1-2 weeks before resuming the rally. From the candle perspective, the rest should be shallow, no deeper than $37-38k.
Odds: Neutral-Bullish

By forming 10 green candles in a row, as forecasted in previous weekly, $BTC exhausted the bullish forces. A pullback is expected.
From the indicators perspective, daily RSI is overbought and the other indicators signal a change.
The support at 8 and 20 EMA lines is strong and the pullback is not expected to go very deep.
Odds: Neutral-Bearish

Elliott Waves

Wave (1) is topping. Once the top has formed, we should expect wave (2). Waves (2) are less predictable and they can retrace 0.236-0.786 of wave (1). However, based on the monthly and weekly candles, I am expecting a shallow pullback of 0.236-0.5, or to $36000-39500. This range is marked by the darker green rectangle on the chart.
From the timing perspective, the pullback could last from a few days to a few weeks (this is the most unpredictable part).

Long Term Forecast remains unchanged for over 4 months. Green – primary. Blue – alternative count.
A week ago I projected a very aggressive wave V (1-5) and suggested its shape. Based on the candles formed in July, I maintain the projection. If the rally continues, I am expecting wave V to top at $69000 +/-500.
Possible timing – August-September.

Monthly Forecast

I am expecting a strong rally in August.

  1. In the first 1-2 weeks, $BTC is expected to form wave (2). Targets for pullback – $36000-39500.
  2. Wave (3) is likely to follow the pullback. Wave could possibly be almost vertical, advancing 10+% daily.
  3. Target for wave V – $69000 +/-500 in August-September.
    There is one sign that this could happen in August, I will keep you updated on this.

Reversal Call:

Previous Monthly Analysis:

Previous Weekly:

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