#Ethereum = Monthly Analysis = 01.08.2021 $ETH #ETH #investing #cryptocurrency #crypto #ElliottWave

$ETH seems to be topping the first large wave off the bottom and would require a pause before advancing further. Let’s evaluate the options on the different time frames.

Candles

Monthly
The July’s candle shifted the odds back to the bulls. A Piercing Line / Hanging Man type of candle is a very good outcome after the terribly bearish interim candle in the middle of July. These types of candles require confirmation.
If August closes above $2890, a continued rally would be confirmed. Anything below would be viewed as bearish.
The price is back above 8 EMA. While $ETH is overbought on the monthly, it looks like it has some room to go higher.
Odds: Bullish-Neutral

Weekly
The weekly candle formed a healthy bullish continuation candle. It confirmed the Engulfing of the previous week and closed well above 8 and 20 EMA lines, saving them from a bearish cross.
Volume, RSI and other indicators support further advance.
Odds: Bullish

Daily
As forecasted, $ETH formed 10 green candles. From the candle theory perspective, this is positively bearish. While there is a possibility to paint 1-2 more green candles, this would be viewed as an overstretch and would signal an even faster/deeper pullback.
Some indicators show an imminent reversal that could happen later today or tomorrow.
Odds: Bearish

Elliott Waves

As marked on the 4hr chart above, the top of wave (1) is likely in. There is a little chance of another spike, but no higher than $2700.
Following the limitations set by monthly and weekly candles, I am expecting a pullback to the dark blue rectangle area – $2200-2350. However, a shallow retrace to $2450 would not be a surprise.
While a deep retrace to ~$1900 is possible under the EW guidelines, I view this possibility as very unlikely as this point.
Possible duration of the pullback – 5-10 days.

Long Term Chart

From the long term perspective, the Elliott Wave weekly chart remains the same since May 16. There is a possibility that wave IV indeed completed and wave V started.
Judging by the character of the ongoing wave 1 of V, wave V could be exceptionally aggressive and might complete within a month or two. However, to confirm this hypothesis I need to see at least one sizeable pullback, its size and timing.
Based on some very preliminary estimates, wave V could advance at least to $4570 +/- 100. I will keep updating this estimate as more waves are formed.

Alt Count – Red
There is still a possibility of an extended wave IV for another six months or so. With such a strong ongoing rally, I evaluate the odds of such scenario as low.

FORECAST & Events to Watch:

  1. Expect a pullback to $2200-2350 area in the next 5-10 days.
  2. The pullback would be followed by a strong wave (3) that could end within a few days.
    Possible target for wave (3) – $3600-3800.
  3. There is a possibility for wave V to complete in one month. Target – $4570 +/-100.
  4. If the next week closes below $2108, this would be very bearish and would change most of the expectations.
  5. August 31 closure with a red candle would likely signal a prolonged correction for several months.

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