$GDX closure today signals a possible gap down after Bearish Island. Let’s explore the hypothesis from different angles.
The latest Monthly Analysis – link at the bottom.
Today’s Bearish Maribozu candle made a Bearish Engulfing combo and was likely completed a Bearish Island multi-day formation. The indicators on daily and on smaller frames are supportive of a continued move down.
$GDX could open with a gap down tomorrow. If it does, the Island pattern would be complete and the stock could fall aggressively.
Odds: Strong Bearish
From the Monthly: “GDX continues to be under a strong bearish pressure on the monthly and a significant effort would be required to overcome this. Unless there is a strong bullish move in the first week, I am expecting GDX to continue down in August.
The long term targets continue to be the same as I identified several weeks ago – $31, $25, $15. The levels and forecasted counts are on the monthly chart. Until I can see a strong bullish move on the monthly frame or at least a rally on weekly that would recover the long-term damage, the bearish odds remain in force.“
- A closure below $32.87 on August 6 would mean an extended (multi-week) decline.
- A closure above $37 on August 31 would be the first step towards recovery.
The detailed previous Monthly and Weekly analyses with forecast can be found by the links below.
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Previous Monthly & Weekly: