$GDX = Daily Analysis – Down = 05.08.2021 #gold #GLD #GDX #preciousmetals #investing #trading

In two days, $GDX price moved from above to below all averages. Two long red candles in a row is a strong bearish statement. Let’s explore the hypothesis from different angles.

The latest Monthly Analysis – link at the bottom.

Daily
Two Bearish Maribozu candles in a row ask for a third one, possibly forming a Three Black Crows tomorrow.
From the technical perspective, in just two days, the price dropped from above to below 8/20 EMA and 50/100/200 MA lines. RSI and MACD are moving along with the price. Nothing that would signal a bullish move.
From the EW perspective, at least one indicator hints that wave (3)/C possibly underway.
A red candle tomorrow, especially if lower than ~ $34, would shift the odds to the dark side on the weekly frame.
Odds: Strong Bearish

Forecast

From the Monthly: “GDX continues to be under a strong bearish pressure on the monthly and a significant effort would be required to overcome this. Unless there is a strong bullish move in the first week, I am expecting GDX to continue down in August.

The long term targets continue to be the same as I identified several weeks ago – $31, $25, $15. The levels and forecasted counts are on the monthly chart. Until I can see a strong bullish move on the monthly frame or at least a rally on weekly that would recover the long-term damage, the bearish odds remain in force.

  • A closure below $32.87 on August 6 would mean an extended (multi-week) decline.
  • A closure above $37 on August 31 would be the first step towards recovery.

The detailed previous Monthly and Weekly analyses with forecast can be found by the links below.



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Previous Monthly & Weekly:

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