$XAU = Gold: Daily Analysis – Down = 05.08.2021 #GOLD #preciousmetals $GDX $GLD #XAUUSD #GC_F

Finally gold made a move. Today’s candle confirmed Bearish Harami of Jul 30th. This is a strong bearish statement. Let’s explore the hypothesis from different angles.

Daily
On July 30, gold made a Bearish Harami combo that was confirmed only today. At the same time, the price moved from above 8/20 EMA and 100 MA to below these lines. At the same time, 50d MA crossed below 200d MA. The RSI moved further below 50 and MACD diagram turned negative. A 8/20d bearish EMA cross is about to happen in a matter of hours.
This is not bullish at all, not even remotely.
A closure below $1800 tomorrow would mean a further decline.
A closure below $1750 (a stretch, but still possible) would mean a strong bearish statement on the weekly frame. Better not to happen.
Odds: Strong Bearish

Elliott Waves

Below is a mid term bearish forecast shared in the Monthly Analysis. Nothing changed. Operative targets: $1550-1650.

The blue counts represent the possible continuation of a rally, though the odds are very slim.

Forecast:

Gold was damaged greatly in June on the monthly and weekly frames. The odds are still on the dark side.

Bearish Harami confirmed and I expect gold to decline to $1550-1650 or lower.

If gold is going to make a bottom and reverse, we should see the bullish candles at least on the weekly charts.

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