From Monthly Analysis on Aug 1: “Wave could possibly be almost vertical, advancing 10+% daily“. Today $BTC formed Three White Soldiers, as predicted yesterday. Nothing bearish yet and I expect the rally to continue. What is next? Let’s explore the options from different angles.
$BTC has been rallying since the candle called the reversal on July 21 (link below).
As anticipated, today it completed a Three White Soldiers combo that signals a continued rally.
However, there is some indication of a possible pause for a few days before resuming the trend. The next few days will tell us which of the two channels $BTC would likely to take. The weekly candle tomorrow should also provide more data for analysis.
So far, no bearish development on any of the frames.
Odds: Strong Bullish
Elliott Waves and Forecast
From the perspective of EW, wave (3) is likely underway and this is supported by indicators.
Assuming that waves (1) and (2) complete, a simple EW projection suggests the following targets:
– for wave (3) – $58000-60000
– for wave (5) – $68000-70000
I also used another method to project the length of wave V based on waves I-IV and arrived with this number: $69051.4. It greatly aligns with the $68000-70000 interval and I am wondering how accurate it could be.
There are two possible channels based on the most outstanding points. The green one – primary, and the red one – alternative.
In the monthly forecast I mentioned the possibility of an extremely aggressive wave V that would end in August. This would be for the red channel.
The next few days will be decisive for the channel slope.
Below is the long term forecast that remains unchanged for over 4 months. Let’s see how this current rally fits into the long term channel and the targets.
Previous Monthly Analysis:
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