From yesterday’s Daily: “A closure below $1750 (a stretch, but still possible) would mean a strong bearish statement on the weekly frame. Better not to happen.”
I heard some guru saying today’s action was the final bearish. To the contrary, I think the gold bear has just been warming up. And here is why – let’s explore the hypothesis from different angles.
In June gold formed a solid Dark Cloud Cover. In July, it made a rather weak Thrusting Line candle. It managed to close above 8m EMA and this is the only bullish factor. Until the last day, gold had a chance to form a much stronger bullish candle, but did not push hard enough. The technical indicators continue to stay bearish.
So far, in August, the price fully retraced the July’s advance and is on track to confirming the June’s bearish candle. If on August 31 gold closes below $1750 (only 13 points below today’s closure), a multi-month decline would be almost guaranteed.
I continue to maintain the bearish outlook until the red candle of June is canceled.
As forecasted, the weekly candle completed the Falling 3 Methods, a very strong bearish continuation combo. The bearish odds are high and the decline is expected to continue. The indicators are pointing down and the price is sitting on the 100w MA line. If it drops below, the next support on the weekly would be the 200w MA at about $1560-1570.
In the previous week, some indicators still showed bullishness, but this week they turned bearish.
There are no signs of bullish actions for now.
Odds: Strong Bearish
Today’s Bearish Maribozu is a strong bearish continuation candle. It started by gapping below the 50d MA and closed well below all daily MA lines. In the process, it flipped PSAR bearish, moved MACD tp the negative territory and helped with the 8/20 bearish EMA cross. We should not also forget the 50/200 MA bearish cross two days ago.
In short, no sign of bullishness for now and gold is not even oversold on daily!
Odds: Strong Bearish
In the beginning of July I projected a possible shape of the corrective wave B/2 that I viewed to extend into the end of month. Gold followed the forecast closely and I believe is now working on wave 3.
The operative targets for wave 3 in green rectangle: $1550-1650.
Possible timing: August – September. Timing is always the hardest part with gold.
The blue counts represent the possible continuation of a rally, though the odds are very slim.
Long Term Fractals:
The chart below compares gold, its waves, candles and indicators in 2012 and 2021. There are numerous similarities and it would not be a surprise if gold decays further to $1730-1420 area, based on the most typical Fibonacci retrace levels. This is the monthly chart and the completion of wave C might take a year or more.
- The current Silver monthly/weekly/daily charts look even more bearish than the ones of gold. If the metals are meant to move in sync, gold is yet to catch up.
!!! Like and Retweet this post if you would like me to do Silver. !!!
- DXY Long Term chart and it’s monthly/weekly candles are signaling a rally. Something has to give.
Gold was damaged greatly in June on the monthly and weekly frames. The odds are strongly on the dark side.
There is a good chance of a continued decline in August, targeting $1550-1650 by the end of month.
If gold is going to make a bottom and reverse, we should see a bullish candle/combo at least on the weekly charts.
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