As forecasted, this week $BTC continued its rally that was clearly called on July 21st. What’s next? Let’s explore all details from different angles.
The July candle formed a full Bearish Engulfing, closing a few hundred points above the June high. The move was well supported by technical indicators and at least one month of higher prices is expected.
The price was back above 8 EMA line and the August candle is bullish so far.
As expected, after the Maribozu of last week, this weekly candle is green and completed Three White Soldiers, a strong bullish continuation formation. The higher prices are expected, however, they could happen either directly or after a little pause.
The candle closed above 8 and 20 EMA. RSI and other indicators support the move upwards.
As anticipated in previous update, $BTC retraced after 10 green candles and the pullback was shallow.
The rally resumed with 4 green candles in a row. While this formation is very bullish, the RSI is entering the overbought area we should exercise some caution while riding higher.
The support at 8 and 20 EMA lines is strong, however, crossing the 200 MA line might take some time and a horizontal move at the beginning of next week would not be a surprise.
Wave (3) is likely underway and all time frames point upwards.
The target for wave (3) – $58000-60000.
At this point, the timing is not clear as $BTC is yet to chose the channel. The more aggressive red one would lead the wave (5) to completion in August. The green one – most likely in September. Hopefully the next week will bring enough information for finalizing the channel.
Alternatively, there is a chance that the current wave is still part of a bigger wave IV as marked on the long term chart.
Long Term Forecast remains unchanged for over 4 months. Green – primary. Blue – alternative count.
In July I projected a very aggressive wave V (1-5) and suggested its shape. Based on the candles formed in July, I maintain the projection. If the rally continues, I am expecting wave V to top at $69000 +/-500.
Possible timing – August-September.
I am expecting the rally to continue.
- Wave (3) is likely to be very aggressive, possibly advancing 10+% daily.
- Wave (3) target – $58000-60000.
- Target for wave V – $69000 +/-500 in August-September.
There is one sign that this could happen in August, I will keep you updated on this.
- Exercise caution as the daily RSI entered into the overbought territory.
Previous Monthly/Weekly Analysis:
Follow the blog on Twitter @InvestingAngles or, if you want all posts in your inbox, by email.
As tweets are often buried among the other tweets on the topic and one is looking for regular updates, I recommend that you to sign to the email updates in the blog – every single post will be automatically sent to your inbox.
Starting in August, I am planning to introduce Premium Content in my blog. The weekly, monthly, and long term analyses and charts will be available only for the premium followers and subscribers for a very humble fee. This is still work in progress and I will keep you informed.