#Ethereum = Weekly Analysis = 08.08.2021 $ETH #ETH #investing #cryptocurrency #crypto #ElliottWave

After a rare bullish combo on Aug 4, $ETH rallied strong. The trend looks healthy overall and it might need a little pause. What’s next? Let’s evaluate the options from the different angles.


The July’s candle shifted the odds back to the bulls. A Piercing Line / Hanging Man type of candle is a very good outcome after the terribly bearish interim candle in the middle of July. These types of candles require confirmation.
If August closes above $2890, a continued rally would be confirmed. Anything below would be viewed as bearish. So far, the coin shows strength. But there are 23 days left in August and anything could happen in this period.
The price is strongly above 8 EMA. While $ETH is overbought on the monthly, it looks like it has some room to go higher.
Odds: Bullish

The weekly formed a Three White Soldiers, a strong bullish continuation formation. The PSAR flipped bullish and the other indicators are supportive of the move.
Theory says that the trend is expected to continue higher (high odds), however, it would not be uncommon if if takes a pause for a week or two (horizontal development).
From technical perspective, the price stayed strongly above 8 EMA and this line would be the support for the nearest future.
Odds: Bullish-Neutral

Following a strong bullish event on August 4, $ETH made another 3 green candles.
Everything seems to be looking good, but yesterday green candle was formed of a very small volume and today’s pullback was expected.
From the TA perspective, the very quick advance pushed the RSI into the overbought territory and a reset is required. The weekly frame does not support a deep retrace at this point. Until the retrace breaks below ~$2800, it would be treated as corrective.
Also the Sunday’s candle, the first of the pullback, would be of great importance.
Odds: Neutral

Elliott Waves

Primary count – blue. As marked on the 5hr chart above, I believe that wave (3) is underway. Preliminary target area – $3900-4100.
The slope of the channel is the most aggressive. It could change (lowering the slope) if the current pullback breaks the current channel downwards.
Alternative count – purple. If the current pullback develops as a motive wave down, there is a possibility of a much longer correction, that is marked as Alt IV on the Long Term Chart below. If the next week closes below $2530, the alternative count would be likely in effect.

Long Term Chart

From the long term perspective, the Elliott Wave weekly chart remains the same since May 16. There is a possibility that wave IV indeed completed and wave V started.
Judging by the character of the possible ongoing V, it could be exceptionally aggressive and might complete within a month or two. However, to confirm this hypothesis I need to see at least one sizeable pullback, its size and timing.
Based on some very preliminary estimates, wave V could advance to at least $4570 +/- 100. I will keep updating this estimate as more waves are formed.

Alt Count – Red
There is still a possibility of an extended wave IV for another six months or so. With such a strong ongoing rally, I evaluate the odds of such scenario as low.

FORECAST & Events to Watch:

  1. Possible pullback to $2600-2800 area in the next several days.
  2. Possible target for wave (3) – $3900-4100.
  3. There is a possibility for wave V to complete in one month. Target – $4570 +/-100.
  4. If the next week closes below $2530, this would be very bearish and would change most of the expectations.
  5. August 31 closure with a red candle would likely signal a prolonged correction for several months.

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