After a great fall over two days $gold took a pause today. There are many signals for a continued decline. Let’s have a look into details.
Today’s daily candle and it’s positioning suggest that $gold takes a day for consolidation. There is a good chance that this consolidation takes 3 or more days before the decline resumes.
From yesterday’s Analysis: “I think that the most likely path for the next few days would be a horizontal or an insignificant decline as long as price stays below ~$1765-1755.“
The indicators strongly suggest that at least one more lower low is due (ideally – two lower lows).
So far, no clear sign of bullishness.
In the beginning of July I projected a possible shape of the corrective wave B/2 that I viewed to extend into the end of month. Gold followed the forecast closely and I believe is now working on wave iv of 3.
The operative targets for wave 3 in green rectangle: $1550-1650.
Possible timing: August – September. Timing is always the hardest part with gold.
The blue counts represent the possible continuation of a rally, though the odds are very slim.
Gold was damaged greatly in June on the monthly and weekly frames. The odds are strongly on the dark side.
There is a good chance of a continued decline in August, targeting $1550-1650 by the end of month.
If gold is going to make a bottom and reverse, we should see a bullish candle/combo at least on the weekly charts.
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Yesterday I posted my Long Term Forecast for Silver.