Today $GDX tried to complete a reversal pattern, but failed. Most likely a consolidation day before the next leg down. Let’s explore the hypothesis.
The latest Monthly Analysis – link at the bottom.
$GDX bulls tried hard to form a combo, somewhat similar to a Morning Star. However, the bearish pressure in the last hour transformed the candle into a neutral one.
The indicators signal further downtrend and there is no strong bullish sign so far.
!Two of the monthly indicators signal a possible wave 3/C on the monthly scale. It would not surprise me if we see two-three large red monthly candles in a row.
- A red candle tomorrow would signal a continued downtrend.
- A green candle closed above ~$33.10 would be the first sign of a bottom in place (low probability).
From the Monthly: “GDX continues to be under a strong bearish pressure on the monthly and a significant effort would be required to overcome this. Unless there is a strong bullish move in the first week, I am expecting GDX to continue down in August.
The long term targets continue to be the same as I identified several weeks ago – $31, $25, $15. The levels and forecasted counts are on the monthly chart. Until I can see a strong bullish move on the monthly frame or at least a rally on weekly that would recover the long-term damage, the bearish odds remain in force.“
The detailed previous Monthly and Weekly analyses with forecast can be found by the links below.
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Previous Monthly & Weekly: