$XAU = Gold: Daily Analysis = 11.08.2021 #GOLD #preciousmetals $GDX $GLD #XAUUSD #GC_F #investing

Gold is flirting below the inflection area with a good chance to start another leg down. There are many signals for a continued decline. Let’s have a look into details.

Candles

Daily
Today’s daily candle (chart below) tried to make everything to form a reversal combo. It lacked a dozen points.
The odds are almost neutral (barely bullish) and there is a chance that another green candle tomorrow would form a bottom.

If $gold closes tomorrow above $1766, the reversal would be confirmed.
In case of any other outcome, green or red, the odds would switch to the bears side.

From Monday’s Analysis: “I think that the most likely path for the next few days would be a horizontal or an insignificant decline as long as price stays below ~$1765-1755.
The indicators still suggest that at least one more lower low is due.
Odds: Neutral

Elliott Waves

In the beginning of July I projected a possible shape of the corrective wave B/2 that I viewed to extend into the end of month. Gold followed the forecast closely and I believe is now working on wave iv of 3 (red count 4 on the hourly chart).

The operative targets for wave 3 in green rectangle: $1550-1650.
Possible timing: August – September. Timing is always the hardest part with gold.

The blue counts represent the possible continuation of a rally, though the odds are very slim.

Forecast:

Gold was damaged greatly in June on the monthly and weekly frames. The odds are strongly on the dark side.

There is a good chance of a continued decline in August, targeting $1550-1650 by the end of month.

If gold is going to make a bottom and reverse, we should see a bullish candle/combo at least on the weekly charts.

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