$WTI = Oil – Long Term Forecast = 18.08.2021 #WTI

It looks like $WTI is set to decline to min $49. Let’s explore the hypothesis from the multiple angles.

Several members asked me to share my view on oil. So, here it is.


The monthly candles are forming a very bearish topping formation. If WTI closes below $65.21 on August 31 ($64 as I type), a serious damage will be done on the monthly.
Odds: Bearish

This weekly candle seems to be ready to overcome a possible reversal candle of the previous week. The price fell well below 20 EMA and the indicators support further decline.
Odds: Bearish

The daily candles signal a continued fall. Based on some indicators, it looks like wave 3 is in progress. We will see whether 200 MA could stop this train.
Odds: Bearish


In 2020, WTI completed wave (II) in the negative territory and has been rallying since. I believe that wave I is complete.
If this is the case, per EW standards, the minimal required retrace, wave II, is 0.236 of wave I. In our case – to $49.
The most typical retrace for waves II – 0.5-0.618, however 0.786 is not than uncommon. This gives us a huge range: $49 – minus $15. Yes, minus! And don’t tell me this is impossible.
As waves II are the most unpredictable from the perspective of retrace, shape and timing, we have to wait until we can see the signs of reversal.
So far, based on the length and shape of the first waves down, I could assume that the correction could end between $48-52 area. However, the waves can be extended, and this is a big unknown at this point.

Once the monthly candle is known, I am planning to share the Monthly Analysis for WTI that will be available for the subscribers only. For only $10 per month, you can have this and much more.

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