$WTI = $Oil – Weekly Analysis = 20.08.2021 #WTI

I maintain that $WTI is set to drop to at least $46-50. The weekly closure was very bearish. Let’s explore the hypothesis from the multiple angles.

Several days ago I expressed a concern that #WTI is on a dangerous path. Today’s weekly candle seemed to confirm the alert.


The monthly candles are forming a very bearish topping formation. If WTI closes below $65.21 on August 31 ($61.86 as I type), a serious damage will be done on the monthly, possibly triggering a multi-month decline.
Odds: Bearish

The weekly candle is a strong bearish Maribozu that completely canceled the signs of possible reversal in previous week. The price fell well below 20 EMA and the indicators support further decline.
Odds: Strong Bearish

The daily candles signal a free fall. Based on some indicators, wave 3 is likely in progress. The price is rapidly approaching 200 MA and I am not convinced it will stop there.
Odds: Strong Bearish


In 2020, WTI completed wave (II) in the negative territory, rallied to form wave I and it looks like a major decline is in progress to make wave II.
If this is the case, per EW standards, the minimal required retrace for wave II is 0.236 of wave I. In our case – to $49.
The most typical retrace for waves II – 0.5-0.618, however 0.786 is not than uncommon. This gives us a huge range: $49 – minus $15. Yes, minus! And don’t tell me this is impossible.
As waves II are the most unpredictable from the perspective of retrace, shape and timing, we have to wait until we can see the signs of reversal.


Based on the length and shape of the first waves down, I have a preliminary target for wave C (subwaves 1-5), as marked on the daily candle chart.
Target: $46-50 area.
Note that wave 3, that is presumably underway, could be extended, and this is a big unknown at this point.

Once the monthly candle is known, I am planning to share the Monthly Analysis for WTI that will be available for the subscribers only. For only $10 per month, you can have this and much more.

4 thoughts on “$WTI = $Oil – Weekly Analysis = 20.08.2021 #WTI

  1. The week is not over yet. I will evaluate the weekly candle once it’s formed. So far, anything could happen and I believe, based on the waves structure, this correction is not over.

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