$XAU = $Gold : Weekly Analysis = 28.08.2021 #GOLD #preciousmetals $GDX $GLD #XAUUSD #GC_F #investing

After this week closure, gold is truly at the crossroads. While short- and even mid-term candles point upwards, the monthly and quarterly suggest that it is not out of the woods yet.

In the study below I will interpret the candles on the quarterly/monthly/weekly/daily charts and identify the important levels to watch for, compare 2021 vs 2012 from the technical and candles perspectives, discuss the long- and short-term forecasts with Elliott Waves, project possible channels, targets and the reversal points.


The quarterly chart looks very bearish from the candles perspective. The formation at the top in 2021 has higher bearish odds than the one in 2012. There is a good chance that in Q4, 2021 or Q1, 2022, gold forms a candle comparable to the one in Q2, 2012 (the largest red one) when it lost 23% in just three months. It could also happen earlier, in September, but the odds of such event are rather low.
This is a fundamental damage and it needs to be reversed on the quarterly chart before declaring a rally to the new highs. The Q1, 2021 candle can be canceled if gold closes on September 30 above $1971.50. Until this happens – bearish.
From the quarterly perspective, gold can have the short- and even mid-term rallies within a quarter, but what important is how the quarter ends.
Odds: Bearish

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