Friday’s closure signaled that $GDX started a battle. On one side – strong bullish odds on the daily and weekly. On the other – powerful bearish odds on the monthly. Which one will win in the end is a big question, however we have several clues that can help with planning further actions. Let’s explore them from different angles.
This study is available to everyone. The Monthly Analysis on Aug 31/Sep 1 will be visible to subscribers only.
The Bearish Engulfing of June was a very powerful bearish statement and these types of candles are not canceled easily. The July, GDX was not able to produce a candle or combo that would signal a reversal. The July’s candle was likely a pause before resuming the downtrend. There is no strict rule about the pause and there is a possibility that the horizontal movement extends for 1 or more months.
The August candle is currently red and the price is below 20m EMA. Even if GDX adds another 5-6% in the last two days of the month, such rally would not make the candle combo bullish. A much stronger and longer rally would be needing in order to flip the formation to the bullish side.
Some levels to watch for:
If GDX closes below $32.87 on August 31, at least one month of lower prices will be ahead.
If GDX is to recover, a first sign would be an August closure above ~$37, about +13% on Aug 30 and 31. Is it feasible? – Mr. Market is always full of surprises.
GDX produced a very clear Bullish Harami combo that is viewed as one of the strongest 2-candle reversal combos. This one, however, requires a confirmation and support by certain technical indicators. So far, the support is weak and we would need to wait for a confirmation for a week or two. If the next week closes with a green candle above 8 or 20 EMA, the rally is likely in progress.
Friday’s strong green candle could signal a start of a short-term rally. It closed just above 20 EMA on increasing volume.
Indicators started to point upwards and if we see more green candles in the next few days, the rally will continue.
Based on the Fibonacci levels and few other indicators, the wave could reach $35-36 in the next few days/weeks.
There are two main counts I maintain on the monthly chart. Red – primary, green – alternative. I continue to stay bearish in the long run until at least the weekly odds confirm the reversal.
Long term forecast charted in November 2020 remains unchanged.
From the previous weekly forecast:
- A closure above ~$32 on August 27 could signal a bottom.
- A closure below $30.64 on August 31 opens a path to $25 and $15.
GDX possibly hit the bottom, but the rally still requires confirmation. GDX continues to be under a strong bearish pressure on the monthly frame and a significant effort would be required to overcome this. Until I can see a strong bullish move on the monthly frame or at least a rally on weekly that would recover the long-term damage, the bearish odds remain in force.
If the rally continues, possible target: $35-36, or +7-10% from the current price.
The closing price on August 31 will be very significant for defining the path for the next weeks and possibly months.
Tune up for the monthly analysis that will be available for the subscribers only.
Previous Monthly & Weekly: