The GDX monthly candle says that the stock will likely go lower. High bearish odds. The chart above (designed in November 2020!) remains unchanged.
From the previous monthly forecast: “GDX continues to be under a strong bearish pressure on the monthly and a significant effort would be required to overcome this. Unless there is a strong bullish move in the first week, I am expecting GDX to continue down in August.”
Let’s explore the hypothesis from the different time frames and different angles.
The August candle is a standard bearish continuation candle that managed to close below July low and below 20m EMA line. The lower wick is not long enough to consider it a bullish reversal candle.
The majority of indicators point down and it would be a big surprise if the September’s candle is green.
If GDX in September closes above $35, this would be bullish (very low odds at this point). Every other closure would be bearish.
Last week GDX produced a very clear Bullish Harami combo that is viewed as one of the strongest 2-candle reversal combos. This one, however, requires a confirmation and support by certain technical indicators. So far, the support is weak and we would need to wait for a confirmation for a week or two. If this week closes with a green candle above 8 or 20 EMA, a rally is likely in progress.
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The detailed previous Monthly and Weekly analyses with forecast can be found by the links below.
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