$XAU = $Gold : Monthly Analysis + Long Term Forecast = 01.09.2021 #GOLD #preciousmetals $GDX $GLD #XAUUSD #GC_F #investing

A very interesting closure in August. At least bulls have a chance in September. Let’s discuss it from the different perspectives.


The quarterly chart looks very bearish from the candles perspective. The formation at the top in 2021 has higher bearish odds than the one in 2012. There is a good chance that in Q4, 2021 or Q1, 2022, gold forms a candle comparable to the one in Q2, 2012 (the largest red one) when it lost 23% in just three months.
This is a fundamental damage and it needs to be reversed on the quarterly chart before declaring a rally to the new highs. The Q1, 2021 candle can be canceled if gold closes on September 30 above $1971.50. As I type, gold is $1813. Can it make 8.7% in September?
Until this happens – bearish.
From the quarterly perspective, gold can have the short- and even mid-term rallies within a quarter, but what important is how the quarter ends.
Odds: Bearish

Gold closed in August with a Dragonfly doji. It would be fantastic if it was a standalone, or if the July and August candles swapped places. It did not.
The candle closed just a tad above the 8 EMA line, but the indicators were not much supportive of the move. Most of them.
In order to overcome the monthly bearish pressure, gold needs to close September at $1920. However, it would still be insufficient to overcome the quarterly that requires $1971.50.
Tough, huh?
The doji itself could give a quick boost to the metal to $1960-1990 area, but it needs to keep the price there or higher until at least Sep 30.
Doable? Perhaps. At least we know what needs to happen.
Odds: Bullish-Neutral

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