Today’s candle is a bullish statement. However, if we account for other signals, the picture might not be that bullish as it looks. Let’s test the hypothesis from different angles.
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Today BTC formed a bullish Engulfing. However, it failed to fully engulf the previous candle in the last minutes before the close. The candle was formed on a low volume. These and a few other considerations keep me from turning fully bullish on BTC.
To confirm the rally, the coin needs to make at least one more solid green candle that would close above $44.5-45.8k area. Until then, neutral.
This is an updated mid-term perspective.
The wave that started yesterday is corrective and it looks like BTC begins another major corrective wave. Wave (A) in light blue was a flat, so it would not be unreasonable to expect a zigzag or a triangle for wave (B).
Another main count that I maintain is the possible diagonal for wave (C) in blue counts. The next large wave would be defining.
The Long Term Forecast remains unchanged for over 5 months.
Green – bullish, a rally continues (very low probability).
Light Blue – bearish, current wave – b of B.
Blue – bearish, current wave – diagonal for C.
Blue/LightBlue counts are primary and it is not yet clear which one.
- Expect the range movements for the next 2 or more days.
- As long as BTC closes the days below ~$44.5-45.8k, the odds remain bearish.
- A daily closure above ~$45.8k would be a strong bullish statement.
Previous Monthly Analysis:
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This is the condensed Track Record of our most recent #crypto calls:
- $BTC – March 24 – call for imminent reversal, target $29000!
This happened when $BTC was $52k and approaching the top, when the experts were calling for $100k and $150k next.
- $ETH – May 16 – call for strong decline, target $1700!
This happened at the beginning of the decline when $ETH ws $3600 and everyone was saying it was a minor blip.
- $BTC, $ETH, $ADA, $LTC – July 21 – call on Bottom
This happened on the day the cryptos formed a strong reversal combo and started rallying.
- $BTC – July 24 – call on the 10 consecutive green days
This happened on the 4th day of the rally once we recognized a special pattern.
- $BTC – Aug 18 – call on Bottom
This happened within minutes after the bottom, at 9:45 pm PST, when $BTC was $44250. It has rallied 10+% after the call.
- $BTC – Sep 6 – call on Top
Within minutes after the top, at 10 pm PST, when $BTC was $52.5k. The next 10 hours it dropped to $42.1k, or 20%.