Today BTC formed another bullish candle. However, there are a few reasons that keep me from turning bullish. Let’s explore.
From candles perspective, the Engulfing is confirmed today. However, the declining volume Technically BTC printed a candle that formed a bullish Engulfing. However, the declining volume and a few other indicators do not fully support the rally.
The candle closed in the previously identified inflection area and it is not clear which path BTC could take from there.
I continue to stay neutral until a direction is defined.
This is an updated mid-term perspective.
The wave that started 2 days ago is still young and needs to make a few turns to reveal its true character. The blue/light blue counts remain primary.
We are getting close to printing the weekly candle that is currently bearish. I hope we can receive the answers on Friday/Saturday.
The Long Term Forecast remains unchanged for over 5 months.
Green – bullish, a rally continues (lower probability).
Light Blue – bearish, current wave – b of B.
Blue – bearish, current wave – diagonal for C.
Blue/LightBlue counts are primary and it is not yet clear which one.
- Expect the range movements for the next 2 or more days.
- As long as BTC closes the days below ~$44.5-45.8k, the odds remain bearish.
- A daily closure above ~$45.8k would be a strong bullish statement.
Previous Monthly Analysis:
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This is the condensed Track Record of our most recent #crypto calls:
- $BTC – March 24 – call for imminent reversal, target $29000!
This happened when $BTC was $52k and approaching the top, when the experts were calling for $100k and $150k next.
- $ETH – May 16 – call for strong decline, target $1700!
This happened at the beginning of the decline when $ETH ws $3600 and everyone was saying it was a minor blip.
- $BTC, $ETH, $ADA, $LTC – July 21 – call on Bottom
This happened on the day the cryptos formed a strong reversal combo and started rallying.
- $BTC – July 24 – call on the 10 consecutive green days
This happened on the 4th day of the rally once we recognized a special pattern.
- $BTC – Aug 18 – call on Bottom
This happened within minutes after the bottom, at 9:45 pm PST, when $BTC was $44250. It has rallied 10+% after the call.
- $BTC – Sep 6 – call on Top
Within minutes after the top, at 10 pm PST, when $BTC was $52.5k. The next 10 hours it dropped to $42.1k, or 20%.