Earlier today I posted about possibility of a new low. Candles suggest that it could materialize in the 12 hours of so. The daily candle is a bearish Engulfing. Let’s evaluate from different angles.
Today’s bearish Engulfing canceled the short term bullish hopes. (There were reasons to be skeptical yesterday and they fully materialized).
Expect at least one day of lower prices. The 4 hour frame signals a possible sharp drop in the next 12 hours.
Note that if there is no rally tomorrow, the weekly candle would also be bearish Engulfing and it would increase bearish odds greatly.
This is a preliminary mid-term perspective.
I am leaning towards the dark blue count on the chart. The next move is expected towards ~$40-39k.
We are getting close to printing the weekly candle that is currently very bearish. I hope the bulls get enough power to overcome the spell of bearish candles tomorrow.
The Long Term Forecast remains unchanged for over 5 months.
Green – bullish, a rally continues (lower probability).
Light Blue – bearish, current wave – b of B.
Blue – bearish, current wave – diagonal for C.
Blue/LightBlue counts are primary and it is not yet clear which one.
Note that we are in the area that is extremely difficult to forecast. Please exercise caution.
- Expect a move towards $40-39k in the next day, possibly followed by a rally.
- As long as BTC closes the days below ~$45.1k, the odds remain bearish.
- A daily closure above ~$45.1k would be a strong bullish statement.
Previous Monthly Analysis:
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This is the condensed Track Record of our most recent #crypto calls:
- $BTC – March 24 – call for imminent reversal, target $29000!
This happened when $BTC was $52k and approaching the top, when the experts were calling for $100k and $150k next.
- $ETH – May 16 – call for strong decline, target $1700!
This happened at the beginning of the decline when $ETH ws $3600 and everyone was saying it was a minor blip.
- $BTC, $ETH, $ADA, $LTC – July 21 – call on Bottom
This happened on the day the cryptos formed a strong reversal combo and started rallying.
- $BTC – July 24 – call on the 10 consecutive green days
This happened on the 4th day of the rally once we recognized a special pattern.
- $BTC – Aug 18 – call on Bottom
This happened within minutes after the bottom, at 9:45 pm PST, when $BTC was $44250. It has rallied 10+% after the call.
- $BTC – Sep 6 – call on Top
Within minutes after the top, at 10 pm PST, when $BTC was $52.5k. The next 10 hours it dropped to $42.1k, or 20%.