Tomorrow is a big decision day for $BTC. If it closes below $41510, it would be doomed for possibly several months. If it closes above, among the options, it would be a good chance that the correction is coming to an end. This is what candles are trying to say. Let’s have a closer looks at candles and waves.
A monthly closure below $41510 would mean a bearish Engulfing on the monthly frame. The lower – the higher odds. If $BTC also closes below the monthly 20 EMA, ~$40800, this would be a special bearish statement.
In case of a closure above $41510, there would be various bearish and bullish options, but the bearish options would not be as severe as if with the closure below the defined level. Note that this level, the August open price, is at Investing.com.
The daily candle today attempted a rally as I mentioned yesterday after a few attempts to form a bearish continuation candle. The smaller frame candles still support a move upwards. Perhaps BTC succeeds tomorrow.
The indicators are well mixed and there is no clear direction mid/long term.
The mix of indicators, certain formations and the tightening range suggest that BTC is likely in a diagonal, the most difficult structure for forecasting.
Exercise extreme caution.
The mid-term wave structure remains almost the same. There is a chance that the coin painted a triangle in the middle of wave B/4. I marked a tentative target by the rectangle.
At this point I expect a continued slow decline within the charted diagonal boundaries. There is a soup of corrective waves and there is no clarity of what would be the next one. I begin to see some structures, but need more waves to develop.
The Long Term Forecast remains unchanged for over 6 months!
The mid- and long-term charts graphics seem to point towards a possible major bottom around $35000 and this bottom is getting closer (within weeks). This hypothesis, however, might change after the closure tomorrow.
A daily closure above ~$44.1k followed by a confirmation candle would be bullish.
Previous Monthly and Weekly Analyses:
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This is the condensed Track Record of our most recent #crypto calls:
- $BTC – March 24 – call for imminent reversal, target $29000!
This happened when $BTC was $52k and approaching the top, when the experts were calling for $100k and $150k next.
- $ETH – May 16 – call for strong decline, target $1700!
This happened at the beginning of the decline when $ETH ws $3600 and everyone was saying it was a minor blip.
- $BTC, $ETH, $ADA, $LTC – July 21 – call on Bottom
This happened on the day the cryptos formed a strong reversal combo and started rallying.
- $BTC – July 24 – call on the 10 consecutive green days
This happened on the 4th day of the rally once we recognized a special pattern.
- $BTC – Aug 18 – call on Bottom
This happened within minutes after the bottom, at 9:45 pm PST, when $BTC was $44250. It has rallied 10+% after the call.
- $BTC – Sep 6 – call on Top
Within minutes after the top, at 10 pm PST, when $BTC was $52.5k. The next 10 hours it dropped to $42.1k, or 20%.
- $BTC – Sep 18 – predicted a strong reversal down two days in advance.
$BTC dropped from $48.8 to $43.4, or 11%, in a matter of hours.
- $ETH – Sep 19 – forecasted a sizeable drop. In the next several days, ETH fell 627 points or 19%.