Gold made a strong bullish statement. I’m almost ready to confirm that a reversal happened. However, as damage was done on the quarterly and monthly frames, candles need to confirm a reversal at least on the weekly frame and it could be done this Friday.
Let’s evaluate the candles, waves and probabilities.
Quarterly and monthly candle formations are bearish.
The weekly formed the third consolidation candle that was rejected to below 100 MA in the last hours. Quite a signal.
The barrier for bulls remains the same. If gold closes above ~$1790 this week, it could be a first sign of a rally.
Gold made a bullish Engulfing yesterday and confirmed it with a strong move above 50 MA, making a bullish 8/20 EMA cross. However, the move was rejected precisely at 200 MA. The majority of indicators support a continued move upwards.
As the metal is overbought on the 1 and 4 hour frames, there is a possibility of horizontal movement for the next few days.
From the perspective of EW, gold is at an inflection point. Both red and blue counts are of about equal probabilities. Both are well supported by the Fib ratios.
Target for the red – $1600-1575.
Target for the blue – $2000-2100.
The long term view remains the same as charted in August 2020. No reason to adjust it yet.
Gold was damaged greatly in Q1, 2021 on the quarterly and the monthly frames. The long-term odds continue to be bearish.
The metal is at an inflection point, the next few days will determine the path.
In order to confirm the beginning of a long rally, gold needs to close the weekly candle above ~$1790 on October 15 (this Friday). As I type, it is $1791. Would it hold the line for two days?
p.s. $DXY was oversold today on 1hr frame and could make a strong opposite move tomorrow.
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