#SPX = Weekly Indices Analysis = 16.10.2021 $SPY #investing $SPX #trading #ES_F #DowJones $NDX

I almost pulled the trigger on Friday. All my indicators flipped buy. All but one related to NDX. In all previous successful swing trades this one was the first to flip. Now it did not. Hmm, I said. I will wait for a little longer, and, meanwhile, evaluate both bullish and bearish options. Let’s have a look at the candle formations and the waves and targets.

The daily candles for three indices look undoubtedly bullish so I don’t even show them. But what about weekly?

Weekly Candles

We have to remember that the initial damage was done on the monthly and weekly frames. In order to show a recovery, at least the weekly candles should confirm the reversal and I in Thursday’s analysis I outlined the exact level.
From Thursday’s forecast:
If tomorrow the indices close above:
SPX – $4457, a weekly reversal confirmed;
NDX – $15069, a first step in the right direction;
DJIA – $35061, a first step in the right direction.

SPX technically confirmed a reversal and both NDX and DJIA made the first steps towards confirming.
To confirm the reversal, the targets for the next week are:
NDX to close above $15418, only 1.7% higher;
DJIA to close above $35326, only 30 points higher.
The targets seem to be realistic. Let’s see how indices make them.

Elliott Waves
Among three indices, I decided to focus on NDX as it has the cleanest picture imho.

Main hypothesis: the wave off the low does not look motive – a very unusual shape and it is already stretched 2x of the wave marked “i” in blue.


  1. Blue count (bull).
    If the wave is not motive, it still could be a leading diagonal (expanding). If this is the case, wave 2 is expected to retrace to almost the origin of wave 1. Then a real rally would start.
  2. Green count (bear 1).
    The wave off the low could be wave B of a bigger corrective structure. In this case, wave C is expected to decline to the green rectangle area.
    However, from the EW perspective, waves B are typically more complex and last longer than waves A. Thus, the red count.
  3. Red count (bear 2).
    The wave off the low is wave (a) of a bigger wave B that could take a rectangular shape and take another month or so to develop. In the end, it could be a sharp decline and a rally starts just before the new year. This would be very similar to what SPX did at the end of 2018.

On the side notes, on Friday, the hourly VIX RSI registered its lowest level 9 (nine!) in 4 years. $DXY seems to be setting for a nice flight in the upcoming weeks. It’s probably nothing special and the indices will confirm the reversal on all major indices and fly. I’m ready for a long bull run.

Let’s see how these pieces of puzzle come together. Something tells that the next week could be a decision week.

Good luck!

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