$XAU = $Gold : Weekly Analysis = 16.10.2021 #GOLD #preciousmetals $GDX $GLD #XAUUSD #GC_F #investing

As forecasted on Thursday, after Deliberation pattern, gold moved down and formed a very strong bearish candles that I would like to discuss in details. The weekly chart is also full of signals for the next move.

In the middle of the week I heard some calls that gold was moving to $2100-2400 and I even added a bullish count on the mid term chart. However, after the weekly closure, I think that the expectations of $2000 were somewhat premature. Let’s explore.

The quarterly and monthly frames remain bearish.

As I mentioned in the last weekly, gold needed to stay below $1790 to keep the bearish odds intact. It did. The weekly candle closed with a Hammer that signals a strong bearish pressure. The price was rejected below 8 EMA. The last four weeks is a consolidation pattern. The most likely outcome would be a move down in the next several weeks.
Odds: Neutral-Bearish

While gold has not completed a Tower Top, a bearish Engulfing is rather strong. Note that the candle cut through 200, 50, 20 and 8 MA in one move, closed just below 20 EMA. Quite a move.
However, after a move like that, a consolidation for several days would be normal. If gold closes below $1758, the low of the previous long green candle, the direction would be confirmed.
Odds: Bearish


I am tracking multiple corrective counts at this point. I hope the next strong move would add more clarity. The red path is primary for now, I view the whole wave off the Top as a possible diagonal or a motive wave that is guided by the long term counts (chart at the bottom).

Preliminary target for the next wave – $1600-1575.

The long term view remains the same as charted in August 2020. So far, I see no reason to adjust it.


Gold was damaged greatly in Q1, 2021 on the quarterly and the monthly frames. The long-term odds continue to be bearish. The daily and weekly odds are slightly bearish.

I expect gold to continue horizontally or slightly down for the next week.

In order to confirm a decline, gold needs to close a day below $1758.
A daily closure above $1782 would be bullish.

In order to make a bullish weekly statement, the metal should close the next week above $1800.

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