#Bitcoin = Weekly Analysis + Long Term Forecast = 17.10.2021 $BTC #BTC #crypto #cryptocurrency #investing #trading

BTC completed the week with very bullish candles. It consolidated on the daily and printed Three White Soldiers on the weekly frames. At least one higher high is expected next week. Everything looks bullish and there are only a few little concerns that I would like to discuss with the members.

CANDLES

Quarterly and Monthly odds are moderately bearish.

Weekly
The weekly printed Three White Soldiers (TWS). If I did not see the volume, I would surely say that the coin is going higher, very high odds. However, the volume is miserable, much lower than the volume on previous red candles.
The weekly closed above BB. This is another warning sign.
The TWS formation is usually found in waves 3 or at the end of waves C. The indicators suggest that this is rather wave C than wave 3.
Odds: Neutral-Bullish

Daily
The daily candle was the second consolidation candle. The coin could rest for another day-two or could move immediately higher.
A golden cross 100/200 MA happened today. However, at the same time, the coin is overbought on the daily and some indicators continue to diverge.
With these events in mind, I am not convinced that even if BTC makes a new high tomorrow, it would be able to close at a new high.
If BTC closes a day tomorrow:
– above $62945, this would be bullish;
– below ~$58900, this would be a first bearish signal;
– any price between – BTC is likely topping.
Odds: Bullish-Neutral

ELLIOTT WAVES

This is the operative short-term count. The wave is approaching the area where three channels cross, and a top there would be supported by multiple Fib ratios.
The price is in the area of many important levels, such as:
$62126: wave 5 = 2x wave 1 of the last motive wave;
$64000: wave (c) = wave (a), in case of the bearish structure;
$67932: wave V = 2x wave I, the all time ratio.

Making an ATH would be critical. Until it is not made, I keep two possible paths monitored.

Bullish path. BTC is getting closer to the flag target ~$63800 where it could start wave 4 that could target $53900-57300 area. A strong break above $64k would make me adjust the counts as $BTC would be likely moving higher.

In case BTC retraces deeper than $53900, the bearish path might come into play.


The Long Term Forecast remains unchanged for over 6 months!

FORECAST
Making an ATH would be a critical event and it could happen the next week. If it happen, BTC is likely completing its wave V. However, if the coin reverses sharply before ATH, there is a chance that a large wave B of IV completed. Both paths are charted above.

As BTC is overbought on the daily and a very low weekly volume (BTC in the last three weeks had the lowest volume in the last three years) would suggest that BTC is probably approaching a significant top.

If BTC closes a day above $62945, a move to ATH becomes very probable.
If BTC closes a day below $58900, this would be a strong bearish message.

REFERENCES:

Previous Analysis:

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This is the condensed Track Record of our most recent #crypto calls:

  1. $BTC – March 24 – call for imminent reversal, target $29000!
    This happened when $BTC was $52k and approaching the top, when the experts were calling for $100k and $150k next.
  2. $ETH – May 16 – call for strong decline, target $1700!
    This happened at the beginning of the decline when $ETH ws $3600 and everyone was saying it was a minor blip.
  3. $BTC, $ETH, $ADA, $LTC – July 21 – call on Bottom
    This happened on the day the cryptos formed a strong reversal combo and started rallying.
  4. $BTC – July 24 – call on the 10 consecutive green days
    This happened on the 4th day of the rally once we recognized a special pattern.
  5. $BTC – Aug 18 – call on Bottom
    This happened within minutes after the bottom, at 9:45 pm PST, when $BTC was $44250. It has rallied 10+% after the call.
  6. $BTC – Sep 6 – call on Top
    Within minutes after the top, at 10 pm PST, when $BTC was $52.5k. The next 10 hours it dropped to $42.1k, or 20%.
  7. $BTC – Sep 18 – predicted a strong reversal down two days in advance.
    $BTC dropped from $48.8 to $43.4, or 11%, in a matter of hours.
  8. $ETH – Sep 19 – forecasted a sizeable drop. In the next several days, $ETH fell 627 points or 19%.

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