As suggested in the weekly, gold is consolidating and will likely move lower. There were a couple of important events today that I would like to discuss. Let’s have a look from different perspectives.
Last week I heard some calls that gold was moving to $2100-2400. However, after the weekly closure, I think that the expectations of $2000 were somewhat premature.
The quarterly and monthly frames remain bearish, they were discussed in details in the monthly analysis.
Today’s candle is likely the first in the consolidation series. It was rejected at 8 EMA to below 20 EMA. While gold has not completed a Tower Top yet, a bearish Engulfing is very strong.
Technically, the daily PSAR flipped bearish today and a death cross of 100/200 MA seems to be a matter of a few days. RSI is back below 50.
As I suggested in the weekly report, “a consolidation for several days would be normal. If gold closes below $1758, the low of the previous long green candle, the direction would be confirmed.” This forecast stays intact.
I am tracking multiple corrective counts at this point. I hope the next strong move would add more clarity. The red path is primary for now, I view the whole wave off the Top as a possible diagonal or a motive wave that is guided by the long term counts (chart at the bottom).
Preliminary target for the next wave – $1650-1575.
The long term view remains the same as charted in August 2020. Not a single element was adjusted on this chart and I am yet to see a reason for making changes.
Gold was damaged greatly in Q1, 2021 on the quarterly and the monthly frames. The long-term odds continue to be bearish. The weekly odds are slightly bearish.
I expect gold to continue horizontally or slightly down for the next few days / a week.
In order to confirm a decline, gold needs to close a day below $1758.
A daily closure above $1782 would be bullish and would need to be evaluated.
In order to make a bullish weekly statement, the metal should close this week above $1800.
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