$XAU = $Gold : Daily Analysis = 20.10.2021 #GOLD #preciousmetals $GDX $GLD #XAUUSD #GC_F #investing

Today gold closed right in the middle of the Friday’s big red candle. The odds are still bearish, but barely. Let’s have a closer look at the metal from different perspectives.

CANDLES
The quarterly and monthly frames remain bearish, they were discussed in details in the monthly analysis.

Daily
Today’s candle is still viewed as the third one in the consolidation series. The bearish pressure remains.
The candle close right in the middle of the red candle, just a tad above the $1782 level I mentioned for several days.
Technically, the daily PSAR is bearish and a death cross of 100/200 DMA happened as I type. RSI is flirting with 50.
As I suggested in the weekly report, “a consolidation for several days would be normal. If gold closes below $1758, the low of the previous long green candle, the direction would be confirmed.”
Three days passed. The forecast stays intact.
“Three” is an important concept in Candlesticks Theory, and at this point, the formation is considered “ready” for the next move. Some signs suggest that gold is working on the Falling 3 Methods combo and the chance of a move down is rather high.
However, as the bullish odds are never zero, we have to be ready for that scenario as well.
If gold (XAU) closes tomorrow:
– above $1797, this would be very bullish;
– any price below would keep the odds bearish.
Odds: Neutral-Bearish

ELLIOTT WAVES

No change in EW section.
I am tracking multiple corrective counts at this point. I hope the next strong move would add more clarity. The red path is primary for now, I view the whole wave off the Top as a possible diagonal or a motive wave that is guided by the long term counts (chart at the bottom).

Preliminary target for the next wave – $1650-1575.

The long term view remains the same as charted in August 2020. Not a single element was adjusted on this chart, and I am yet to see a reason for making changes.

Forecast:

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