Friday’s Gravestone Doji in XAU leaves very little for imagination. It is almost guaranteed that gold drops in the next few days. A decline of 30-60 points would be normal. Let’s have a closer look at the metal from different perspectives.
The quarterly and monthly frames remain bearish, they were discussed in details in the monthly analysis.
During the week gold made several mighty attempts to finally form a bottom. However, the bearish pressure was to high and the weekly closed with a Hammer, price rejected at 50 DMA to below 20 EMA.
The weekly RSI below 50. The majority of indicators are neutral, slightly bearish.
On Thursday I suggested that if gold (XAU) closes on Friday:
– above $1790 – the daily odds will flip bullish;
– above $1797 – the weekly odds become bullish;
– any price below $1790 would keep the odds bearish.
XAU closed at 1783 after reaching 1813 and a 30 points drop in 1 hour. This is a statement.
Candlestick theory is very clear about a gravestone doji. The most likely follow-up – a drop of the size or the double-size of doji. Odds are high.
The question is what kind of candle will be formed after the doji.
No change in the EW section.
I am tracking multiple corrective counts at this point. I hope the next strong move would add more clarity. The red path is primary for now, I view the whole wave off the Top as a possible diagonal or a motive wave that is guided by the long term counts (chart at the bottom).
Preliminary target for the next wave – $1650-1575.
The long term view remains the same as charted in August 2020. Not a single element was adjusted on this chart, and I am yet to see a reason for making changes.
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