$XAU = $Gold : Monthly Analysis = 30.10.2021 #GOLD #preciousmetals $GDX $GLD #XAUUSD #GC_F #investing

Gold candles painted a very interesting composition of monthly, weekly and daily candles. That Friday’s big drop was definitely a game changer. But, actually, it was not totally unexpected. The quarterly and monthly odds remained bearish and a bearish event at the end of month had better chances to happen than a bullish one. Let’s have a closer look at the metal from different perspectives.

CANDLES
The quarterly and monthly frames remain bearish, they were discussed in details in the quarterly review.

Monthly
For almost all month gold was on track to making a bottom by forming an Either Piercing Line or even bullish Engulfing. But instead, again thanks to Friday’s drop, it made only a Thrusting Line that is widely viewed as a bearish continuation combo. The low monthly volume and the majority of indicators do not yet support a bullish reversal.
Anyway, the candle needs confirmation and I am cautiously bearish for November.
Odds: Bearish-Neutral

Weekly
The weekly candle is a piece of art. Technically, it is a bearish Harami that requires confirmation. But its position! Just a tad within the Sep 13 long red candle, just a few points below 20 EMA and 100 MA, pushed RSI below 50 on a higher selling volume. And two more things: 20 EMA crossed 100 MA in a bearish cross and 50 MA seems ready to do the same soon.
Looks like a perfect setup for a move downwards.
Odds: Bearish

Daily
Daily made (as anticipated on Thursday) a Falling 3 Methods combo. The candle pierced through 200 and 100 MA and stopped below 20 EMA. In the process, it flipped PSAR bearish. Quite a move I would say.
The lower prices are ahead, the bearish odds are very high.
Odds: Bearish

ELLIOTT WAVES

I am tracking a few counts at this point. The red path remains primary after October’s closure.

I view the whole wave off the top in August 2020 as a possible diagonal or a motive wave that is guided by the Long Term chart below.

The long term view remains the same as charted in August 2020. Not a single element was adjusted on this chart, and I am yet to see a reason for making changes. Showing two charts for comparison.

MONTHLY Forecast:

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