$Gold $XAU = Weekly Analysis = 07.11.2021 #GOLD #preciousmetals $GDX $GLD #XAUUSD #GC_F #investing

There is a chance that the last two days made a trend change in gold. The candles are supportive and there is a motive wave for the first time in several months. If continued, the change could become a major one by the end of November.

Let’s try to decipher the message from candles, indicators and Elliott Waves perspectives.

The quarterly and monthly frames still remain bearish, they were discussed in details in the quarterly review. However, if the rally continues, the monthly frame could flip bullish by the end of month.

After two months of the see-saw movements, the weekly candle signals a bottom. It canceled the large red candle made in September and moved above 50 and 100 MA, 8 and 20 EMA, pulling RSI above 50. A few other indicators also support the move.
As long as the weekly candles continue to close above ~$1800, the odds will stay bullish.
Odds: Bullish

Gold made two very bullish daily candles. The price moved from below to above all MA lines. As it moved too fast too far (above BB), a pullback would be normal for the next few days.
The odds will stay bullish unless a daily candle closes below ~$1803.
Odds: Neutral-Bullish


A few days ago I shared an updated Long Term forecast that seems to have a lot of sense in light of the recent moves. There are two main scenarios that I am tracking.

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