$Gold $XAU = Daily Update = 08.11.2021 #GOLD #preciousmetals $GDX $GLD #XAUUSD #GC_F #investing

As discussed in the weekly analysis, gold continued a rally today. However, the candle formation and EW suggest that a pullback is ahead. Let’s have a look from different perspectives.

CANDLES
Gold formed a Deliberation pattern which typically expects a short-term pullback or a horizontal movement.
From the technical perspective, the longer term indicators support a move higher, but the metal is overbought on the smaller frames and would require a few days before normalizing this condition.

In rare cases, a Deliberation could trigger a reversal, but there are no signs of it yet. If gold makes a strong bearish candle tomorrow, e.g. closing below $1818, the odds would flip to the dark side. But so far, the odds are bullish-neutral.
Odds: Bullish-Neutral

ELLIOTT WAVES

Gold is in an inflection area as shown on the short term chart.

I am currently tracking two counts:

  1. Blue (primary).
    The metal has completed or about to complete wave (i). A retrace to $1800-1785 is expected.
    In case the retrace goes deeper, the green count.
  2. Green.
    The count assumes that the current wave is the last sub-wave of wave D of a bigger triangle. The retrace (wave E) could go towards ~$1700.

Both scenarios and the long term chart were discussed in the Weekly Analysis yesterday – link below.

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