$Gold $XAU = Daily Update = 10.11.2021 #GOLD #preciousmetals $GDX $GLD #XAUUSD #GC_F #investing

Gold has entered an inflection zone. If it goes higher from there, a big rally is ahead. If it moves strongly down, the correction that started in 2020 is not over yet. Let’s explore the idea from different perspectives.

The daily candle is somewhat bullish. Why “somewhat” you would ask? The reason is that the upper wick is too large for a normal bullish continuation candle. Indeed, if we look at the 4 hour frame, we would see a Gravestone doji (4 hr chart below), a candle that is abnormal for a strong bullish trend.

The technical indicators say that this is either a top of wave 3 (of 5) or a top of a larger corrective wave (say B or C).
For tomorrow, if gold closes:
– above ~$1839, the odds remain bullish, the rally is likely to continue;
– below ~$1839, something is rotten in the State of Denmark.
So far, the price stays above 8 EMA and the trend is healthy.
Odds: Neutral


I am currently tracking two counts that fit well into the arguments above:

  1. Blue (primary).
    The metal is trying to complete wave (i). Possible target – $1880-1890.
    However, if wave iv of (i) goes lower than ~$1828, that would be a concern.
  2. Green.
    The count assumes that the current wave is the last sub-wave of wave D of a bigger triangle. The retrace (wave E) could go towards ~$1700.

To summarize:
A move below ~$1828 and a closure below ~$1838 would be the bearish signals, meaning that the metal could move much deeper.
I view gold as bullish until the events above happen.

Both scenarios and the longer term perspectives and charts were discussed in the Weekly Analysis on the weekend – link below.

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