As expected, the odds stayed bullish today and today’s candles confirmed the hypothesis. No changes in the short term outlook.
The daily candles in SPX and NDX canceled indecision of yesterday’s candles. DJIA is “still thinking”, but made a good bullish step.
The chances of a green day tomorrow are well over 50%.
SPX/ES retraced 0.236 of the recent rally, the necessary minimum for wave 4, and possibly started wave 5. No changes since the previous post.
Currently I am tracking three possible paths as shown on the chart above:
- Green (primary).
Wave 4 completed. Target for wave 5 – $4770-4810. Green rectangle.
This is well aligned with the SPX swing alert on October 18 for target – $4750-4800.
Wave (1) completed. A bigger pullback to $4450-4600 in wave (2). Red rectangle.
The correction that started in September is not over. Possible wave C, targeting $4250-4300.
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