Gold is very bearish on the daily chart. If a rally does not start tomorrow (and tomorrow is the end of month), a bearish monthly candle would confirm a further move down.
We discussed the details and charts in the weekly analysis that can be viewed here:
Let’s evaluate the recent moves from the perspectives of candles, waves and TA.
This daily overview contains:
– analysis of the daily candle chart;
– 2hr EW chart with a short-term projection;
– the longer term charts were part of the weekly analysis.
The quarterly and monthly frames still remain bearish. Tomorrow we will know whether the odds on the monthly frame unchanged or flip bullish.
The weekly candles formed a Tower Top on November 26 and it was well supported by TA. Therefore, expect an immediate move lower or a few days of sideways before going further down.
Today gold attempted to start a rally and even crossed 100 and 200 DMA. However, it was rejected at 8 EMA and fell back below 100 and 200 DMA.
Unless the metal closes above $1802 tomorrow, there is nothing bullish in the picture.
Elliott Waves and Forecast
Gold has not yet completed a motive wave down (green count). If it succeeds tomorrow, the decline is likely to continue for a significant period of time. The details were discussed in the weekly – the red count on the long term chart.
The blue count is still valid. It will be invalidated if gold moves below $1759.
Tomorrow is likely be a decision day – let’s be patient.
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