ETH formed a very nasty bearish combo on a 2-day chart – Falling 3 Methods. Supported by certain indicators, the bearish odds are so high that any move northbound will be treated as a big surprise.
This daily overview contains:
– daily candle charts – analysis of candles and technical events;
– short term EW chart and targets.
If ETH closes December below $3915 (Coinbase price), it will form a bearish Engulfing on the monthly frame. Such candle is typically followed by at least a month of lower prices.
As I type – ETH at $3809.
The 2-daily Falling 3 Methods over the last 16 days is a very strong bearish message. While we can see a little pause (horizontal movement) for a few periods – remember that each candle represents 2 days – a move down is almost guaranteed.
Odds: Strong Bearish
From the previous analysis: “The monthly and quarterly candles will be printed this week. Their current shapes are vulnerable to a sizeable decline if it happens before the end of year. The next five days could be the trend setting for the months/quarters ahead.”
The long term forecast will be finalized after the monthly/quarterly candles are printed.
The strength of the wave down hints of a possible triangle breakout that I was tracking for a while.
Note that ETH has also moved below the long term channel.
Most typical triangle breakout targets: $3210-2950, also possible – $2620.
In order to make an attempt to flip the odds bullish, ETH would need to close on December 30 at least above ~$3950. Until it happens – the odds remain strong bearish.
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