With today’s closure $ETH exacerbated the very bearish 2-day candle formation I was discussing yesterday. I continue to maintain a triangle breakdown as a primary scenario due to hostility of the current wave down. This option was discussed 2 weeks ago.
Most typical triangle breakout targets would be $3210-2950, also possible – $2620.
This daily overview contains:
– daily candle charts – analysis of candles and technical events;
– short term EW chart and targets.
If ETH closes December below $3915 (Coinbase price), it will form a bearish Engulfing on the monthly frame. Such candle is typically followed by at least a month of lower prices.
As I type – ETH is $3664.
Earlier today I posted an alert about the weekly PSAR that flipped bearish. The post can be viewed here:
The 3-day candles produced today another Falling 3 Methods following the 2-day candles that made the same pattern yesterday. The 3-day one is actually even stronger for several technical reasons. A move down is almost guaranteed from here.
However, as the coin is strongly oversold on 1 and 4 hour charts, a minor bounce or a horizontal move could happen for a day or two.
Odds: Strong Bearish
Big Bear Alert on December 28:
From the previous analysis: “The monthly and quarterly candles will be printed this week. Their current shapes are vulnerable to a sizeable decline if it happens before the end of year. The next five days could be the trend setting for the months/quarters ahead.”
I have several reasons to think that the most recent ATH could be the top of wave (I) of Super Cycle. However, a few confirmations would be needed and I hope to get them with the quarterly/monthly candles in 2 days. The preliminary Long Term chart.
The strength of the wave down hints of a possible triangle breakout that I was tracking for a while. Note that ETH has finally moved below the long term channel started in July.
Current targets: $3210-2950, also possible – $2620.
In order to make an attempt to flip the odds bullish, #ETH would need to close on December 30 at least above ~$3720. Until it happens – the odds remain strong bearish.
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