Bitcoin 2022 Forecast continues the series of Yearly Reviews that @InvestingAngles provides for the followers and subscribers. Some of them have already been posted and can be viewed at the link below.
The Bitcoin forecast is special. We are going to cover the details of various methodologies that we use to provide very accurate forecasts for Bitcoin and other stocks and indices.
For example, the chart above was first designed in March 2021 forecasting a large drop. The target was defined at $29k. The chart evolved with time and this is how it looks now. The details and probabilities of targets will be discussed in the Elliot Wave section below.
This 2022 Forecast contains:
– analysis of quarterly, monthly, and weekly candle charts and corresponding TA;
– classical patterns in charts and candles;
– long term Elliott Wave forecast, targets and timing;
– the current wave and short term targets.
The Q4 candle is a huge Hammer/Gravestone doji. It is positioned within the body of a large red candle and the odds are now bearish.
The chart below (the right one) shows the projection of possible price movements that follow a Gravestone candle. Target area – $15-24k.
Sounds extreme? Perhaps.
Now let’s have a look at another possible classical pattern being developed – a bearish Flag.
Based on various ways to measure the target, the coin could resolve the flag and end up in the purple rectangle.
One more approach is to measure the wave length. Assuming that BTC is completing a huge correction it started in April, the most typical length of wave C varies from 0.786 to 1.272 of the length of wave A. The green rectangle.
With all three rectangles together on one chart we have a perspective target area: $40-15k. It is obviously very wide and this is where we use Elliott Wave theory to measure smaller waves and targets (to be discussed in EW section).
This is probably the most informative candle chart among all in this study.
The red candle in December has increased already bearish odds of November. More, the monthly candle closed below 8 EMA. The RSI and MACD are diverging. MACD line is about to cross the signal line. These and a few other indicators further support the bearishness of the candle formation.
The weekly candle formed a Dark Cloud Cover on an elevated volume. The price dropped below 50 WMA, and 8 and 20 EMA made a bearish cross. Nothing bullish at all.
With such bearish pressure from the weekly and larger frame charts, it does not make sense to discuss the noise – the daily movements.
BTC could experience some minor rallies, but until at least the weekly chart prints a strong bullish candle, the odds across all frames are strong bearish.
This section discusses the short and long term targets and possible timings.
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A $10 USD monthly subscription gets you access to the monthly and weekly analyses, mid and long term forecasts for cryptocurrencies, major US and some world indices, precious metals and miners, commodities, popular stocks and more. There is no free trial. For $10 USD you can evaluate the service for a month and discontinue the subscription at any time.