$GDX = Yearly Review = 02.01.2022 #miners #gold #GLD #GDX #preciousmetals #investing #trading $gold #ElliottWave

$GDX Yearly Review continues the series of long term Forecasts for 2022 that @InvestingAngles provides for the followers and subscribers. The buttons below will take you directly to these posts.

The chart above is 13-month old and the miner is yet to register an event that would require a change.

This Yearly Review contains:
– analysis of yearly, semi-annual, quarterly, monthly and weekly candle charts;
– long term Elliott Wave forecast;
– short term forecast.

The yearly candle is a Dark Cloud Cover. RSI is below 50. PSAR is bearish. A confirmation is required, but year 2022 is expected under a cloud of bearish odds.

After a Spinning Top in the second half of 2020, GDX made two bearish candles in a row. The indicators are trending down and the bearish sequence is likely to continue.

The quarterly candle is the most controversial. It is a bullish Harami, but… The volume is not supportive, MACD continues to decline, PSAR flipped bearish just a 2 weeks ago. Neutral at best.

The monthly candle is a Hanging Man and most likely it is bearish. Note that the last three candles are entirely within the body of the September’s big red one and it is not a bullish sign. A fresh bearish 8/20 EMA cross and a few other signals are supporting a move down.

The weekly formation possibly indicates a local bottom. The rally, however, is very weak. After 3 green weeks the price is still below 20 EMA, the volume is declining, PSAR is bearish, 8/20 EMA and 50/100 are crossed in a bearish way.
In order to make this rally a significant one, the GDX bulls need to keep it going until the end of January and close the month at least above $35.
Odds: Neutral

The daily rally is somewhat optimistic. If the December 31st candle turns out a fake Hanging Man, GDX could continue its advance.
Odds: Bullish-Neutral

The long term chart (below) remains unchanged for 13 months. There is a chance that GDX is working on an Ending Diagonal for wave (C) to complete the very long correction that started in year 2011. Based on the projection, the process could take another year or two.

The mid term chart (above) remains the same for a while. GDX is approaching an inflection area marked by a rectangle. A breakthrough above would introduce new long term counts, but it is of low probability right now.

FORECAST for 2022:
The candles on the larger frames are moderately bearish and GDX is not expected to make sizeable advances in year 2022. Most likely, the miner will end 2022 lower than 2021. The rallies are expected to be the short-term ones.
In order to flip the odds bullish in such candle environment, the miner needs to develop a bullish candle formation on at least the monthly frame. A closure above $35 on January 31st would be the first such signal.

The GDX forecast is somewhat aligned with the 2022 Forecasts for Gold and DXY. The buttons below can take you directly to these posts.

Good luck!

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