ETH candles today do not seem to support a reversal. The chances of loss of another 15% or more remain substantial. The probability of going further down is almost guaranteed.
I hope everyone took cover after the Alert four days ago: “ETH could possibly accelerate down from here. The candle formations suggest a possible substantial drop in the next 1-2 days. Possible target area: $3280-2950.”
ETH is $3205 as I type. Check!
Alert on January 3rd
This daily overview contains:
– analysis of candles and technical events;
– short term forecast;
– long term forecast.
ETH completed Three Black Crows, moving decisively below 200 DMA. The 50 DMA crossed 100 DMA yesterday. The odds are strong bearish with no signs of reversal yet.
If this week closes “as is” or lower, the weekly will print a strong bearish candle and the weekly odds would become strong bearish.
If you followed @InvestingAngles and our long term forecasts on crypto for a while, you would be able to avoid painful declines in May 2021 and now.
No changes for several months. ETH hit the upper boundary of the target area.
Tracking two paths:
- Red (primary for now).
ETH is working on wave C of IV, targeting the red rectangle.
ETH is developing a Super Cycle wave (II).
For a reference, the Cycle wave II declined 94% in 2019.
With such strong short-term candles, $ETH is expected to continue its move downwards. However, being oversold on smaller frames, it could pause for a few days before resuming its move downwards.
Possible short-term targets: $2700-2400. Possible timing – end of January.
There is no signal of a reversal yet. A daily closure above ~$3300-3400 would be the first bullish sign.
The long term perspectives were discussed in details in ETH 2022 Forecast.
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