This post is part of the Weekly Analyses series that InvestingAngles offers to followers and subscribers. The series covers US major indices – SP500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Russell 2000; VIX, DXY, gold & silver, GDX, natural gas, Bitcoin and Ethereum, and some large cap stocks.
This Weekly Analysis contains:
– an overview of daily and weekly candle charts and TA;
– a long term $GDX forecast;
– a short term projection and targets.
The Yearly, quarterly and monthly GDX candles are bearish and the long term bearish pressure is substantial.
On the weekly frame, GDX made a Piercing Line combo. While generally bullish, this particular one is rather weak for a lack of support by indicators.
The 8/20 EMA and 50/100 DMA bearish crosses, bearish PSAR and RSI do not add confidence that GDX could rally from here.
The Friday’s candle confirmed a bearish Inside-Down of Thursday. The odds are strong bearish, supported by the majority of indicators. Note that the price did move again below the 8 EMA line.
The long term chart (below) remains unchanged for 14 months. There is a chance that GDX is working on an Ending Diagonal for wave (C) to complete the very long correction that started in year 2011. Based on the projection, the process could take another year or two.
This is a zoomed in the wave that started in July 2020 on a 3-day chart.
The mid term chart (above) remains the same.
Red path (primary):
GDX completed waves i and ii and could accelerate down in wave iii.
GDX is setting up for a strong rally and is working on a i-ii setup. Low probability for now.
A new lower low would invalidate this count.
The odds are bearish on the daily and larger frames. Thus a move downwards has much higher chances than a bullish reversal.
This move would correlate with the moves forecasted for $gold and $DXY for the upcoming weeks that can be reviewed here.
At this point I am viewing the area of $28-25 as a target for the next move down. A strong move in the upcoming weaks should provide data for fine tuning the next targets and possible timing.
Based on the long term forecast, GDX could target $12 or even lower. This target is yet to be confirmed.
From the previous forecasts: “The candles on the larger frames (weekly and above) are moderately bearish and the long term odds are bearish. The rallies are expected to be the short-term ones. In order to flip the odds bullish in such candle environment, the miner needs to develop a bullish candle formation on at least the weekly frame. There is no such signal so far.” This statement stands.
US Indices, Commodities, DXY, VIX, Crypto
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