$GDX = Weekly Analysis = 05.02.2022 #miners #gold #GLD #GDX #preciousmetals #investing #trading $gold #ElliottWave

This post is part of the Weekly Analyses series that InvestingAngles offers to followers and subscribers. The series covers US major indices – SP500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Russell 2000; VIX, DXY, gold & silver, GDX, natural gas, Bitcoin and Ethereum, and some large cap stocks.

This Weekly Analysis contains:
– an overview of daily and weekly candle charts and TA;
– a long term $GDX forecast, unchanged for 15 months;
– a short term projection and targets.

This video discusses the perspectives for SP500 and market overall:

GDX ANALYSIS

TA & CANDLES
The Yearly, quarterly and monthly GDX candles are bearish and the long term bearish pressure is substantial.

Weekly
After a Falling 3 Methods that GDX made in previous week, this week ended with a bullish Harami. There is lack of support for a bullish move by indicators, thus the odds are close to neutral and a strong bullish confirmation next week will be required. A closure above $31.89 would do.
The weekly trend is bearish so far: the price is below 8 EMA, the 8/20 EMA bearish cross, bearish PSAR all contribute to this.
Odds: Bearish-Neutral

Daily
The daily Piercing Line on Friday set the odds close to neutral. The trend and indicators are still bearish and a confirmation for a move in either direction is needed.
Note the 8/20 EMA and 50/100 MA bearish crosses and all MA that are now aligned in the most bearish way.
Odds: Neutral-Bearish

ELLIOTT WAVES
The long term chart (below) remains unchanged for 15 months. There is a chance that GDX is working on an Ending Diagonal for wave (C) to complete the very long correction that started in year 2011. Based on the projection, the process could take another year or two.

This is a zoomed in the wave that started in July 2020 on a 3-day chart.

The mid term chart (above) remains the same.
Red path (primary):
GDX completed waves i and ii and could accelerate down in wave iii of 3. This wave could also take a shape of a diagonal.

Blue path:
GDX is setting up for a strong rally and is working on a i-ii setup. Low probability for now.

FORECAST:
The odds are bearish on the larger frames and are close to neutral on the smaller ones. The bearish pressure prevails.

At this point I am viewing the area of $19-12 as a possible target for the next move down. Timing – summer 2022- end of 2023.

Based on a few Fibonacci ratios, $GDX could also target lower than $12. Low probability for now.

From the previous forecasts: “The candles on the larger frames (weekly and above) are moderately bearish and the long term odds are bearish. The rallies are expected to be the short-term ones. In order to flip the odds bullish in such candle environment, the miner needs to develop a bullish candle formation on at least the weekly frame. ”
This statement stands.

Good luck!

WEEKLY ANALYSES

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