#SP500 = Daily = 10.02.2022 #SPX #DowJones $SPY $DIA #ES_F $NDX $QQQ #ElliottWave #RUT

I guess today’s fireworks were to celebrate a 50/100 DMA bearish cross in #NDX, and the major US indices are on track to close the week with very bearish weekly candles.

Let’s evaluate the indices from different perspectives.

This SP500 Daily contains the charts and covers:
– SP500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000 – TA and Japanese Candlesticks analysis;
– short and long term charts and forecasts for SP500.

Latest Monthly Analysis (link)

TA & CANDLES

QQQ formed a 50/100 DMA bearish cross today. If we look back (chart below), these crosses happened in 2018 and 2020. In 2018 it led to a prolonged bear market and in 2020 it happened after the bullish reversal of the trend.

Based on candles, I am voting for the 2018 scenario, but it could be different this time.

From the perspective on the monthly and weekly candles, the trends are still bearish.

ELLIOTT WAVES SP500

SPX
Long Term

As the worst bearish formation – Engulfing – already happened on the monthly, the odds are increasing for this long term bear scenario.
Detailed forecast: https://investingangles.com/2022/01/20/sp500-long-term-forecast-bear-case-20-01-2022-spx-spy-sp500-es_f-elliottwave/

SP500 Short Term

  1. Red (primary).
    Until proven otherwise, I believe SPX is working on a very complex wave B, possibly in wave c of (b) of B.
    The long term target remains the same: wave C towards $3850-3250. The targets are projected using various techniques. Refer to the Long Term SP500 study on January 20 (link above).
    Timing for wave c: end of February – 2nd half of March.
  2. Purple.
    SPX makes a direct move towards the targets. Invalidated if ES moves above $4586.
  3. Blue.
    SPX develops an Ending Diagonal for wave 5 towards ATH (as on the Bull Case chart). Low probability.

SUMMARY:

MID-LONG TERM FORECAST:
Expect SP500 to move lower in February, most likely in the second half.
Targets: $3850-3250, or 20-33% loss off the top.
Minimal target – $3850 or 20% loss.

From the monthly forecast on January 30:
SHORT TERM:
The indices could rally in the next 1-2 weeks, the rally could possibly experience many unexpected movements (see-saw).
Short Term Target: $4500-4680.
Keep in mind that this is an attempt to forecast a wave B, the most unpredictable among the corrective waves.

Link to Weekly Analyses
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