#SP500 = Daily Analysis = 14.02.2022 #SPX #DowJones $SPY $DIA #ES_F $NDX $QQQ #ElliottWave #RUT #fintwit

After a rollercoaster on Friday, the #market took a pause. However, during the pause some indices managed to register a few bearish events, further increasing the bearish odds.

Let’s evaluate the indices from different perspectives.

This Overview contains the charts and covers:
– SP500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000 – TA and Japanese Candlesticks analysis;
– short and long term charts and forecasts for SP500.

Latest Monthly Analysis (link)

TA & CANDLES
Daily

Both DIA and SPY flipped the daily PSAR bearish, joining QQQ that did it last week. All indices did not challenge the 8 EMA line and all of them are below 200 DMA. Note that while QQQ only recently formed a 50/100 DMA cross, IWM has already set the 8/20/50/100/200 MA lines in the most bearish way.

From the candles perspective, DIA and SPY today had a chance to form a Three Black Crows pattern, but failed. Instead, they formed a bullish Deliberation that is often viewed as a harbinger of a (likely minor) bounce. The odds are neutral – barely bullish, but it remains to be seen whether the indices could develop something bigger. Remember from the weekly analysis that the monthly and weekly odds are bearish.

The expected path for the next few day could align with the more assuring path outlined by the VIX candles and TA today. It can be viewed here:
https://investingangles.com/2022/02/14/vix-daily-update-14-02-2022-stockmarket-vxx-investing-trading-volatility/

ELLIOTT WAVES SP500

SPX
Long Term

As the worst bearish formation – Engulfing – already happened on the monthly, the odds are increasing for this long term bearish scenario that we have tracked since September.
Detailed forecast: https://investingangles.com/2022/01/20/sp500-long-term-forecast-bear-case-20-01-2022-spx-spy-sp500-es_f-elliottwave/

While there is a bullish long term forecast, we are not showing it for very low probability.

SP500 Short Term
We have been tracking these two possible paths since February 7th. The weekly video (link at the end of this post) covers the detailed analysis of the chart below and the line of thought leading to the conclusions. So far, we have not seen an event that would trigger a change of plan.

  1. Purple (primary).
    Main hypothesis – wave C has started.
    The target area: $3230-80; the most probable, calculated by Golden Section – $3248.
    Alt target: $3850.
    Timing for the primary target: March 11-18.
  2. Red.
    SPX makes a more complex wave B. As the character of the current wave down is not 100% clear, there is a substantial chance for this one.

SUMMARY:

MID-LONG TERM FORECAST:
(copy from the previous two weekly analyses)
Expect SP500 to move lower in February, most likely in the second half.
Targets: $3850-3250, or 20-33% loss off the top.
Minimal target – $3850 or 20% loss.

Short Term Forecast:
The indices are likely to move mostly horizontally or slightly upwards in the next 1-2 days. Expect the move downwards resumed after this pause.

From the Monthly forecast on January 30:
SHORT TERM:
The indices could rally in the next 1-2 weeks, the rally could possibly experience many unexpected movements (see-saw).
Short Term Target: $4500-4680.
Keep in mind that this is an attempt to forecast a wave B, the most unpredictable among the corrective waves.

Link to the Weekly Analyses

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