NDX today made three (three!) very distinctive candle formations in one shot and the most intriguing part is that all of them are bearish. In light of that, anyone betting long for tomorrow must be very, very brave. Although, the bullish odds are never zero.
Let’s evaluate the indices from different perspectives.
This Overview contains the charts and covers:
– SP500 and Nasdaq – TA and Japanese Candlesticks analysis;
– short and long term charts and forecasts for SP500.
TA & CANDLES
Focus on NQ today.
The last two candles – a classical bearish Harami Cross.
The last three candles – a bearish Deliberation combo.
The last four candles – a strong, supported by indicators setup for Falling 3 Methods.
Let’s also not forget the standing monthly and weekly bearish Engulfing candles (not shown).
Say it would be somewhat close to a miracle if NQ goes higher tomorrow. Similar formations (just not that strong) were completed by SPX, DJI and RUT.
ELLIOTT WAVES – SP500
The long term SP500 forecast was discussed on January 20 (no changes): https://investingangles.com/2022/01/20/sp500-long-term-forecast-bear-case-20-01-2022-spx-spy-sp500-es_f-elliottwave/
SP500 Short Term
We have been tracking these two possible paths since February 7th. So far, we have not seen an event that would trigger a change.
- Purple (primary).
Main hypothesis – wave C has started.
The target area: $3230-80; the most probable, calculated by Golden Section – $3248.
Alt target: $3850.
Timing for the primary target: March 11-18.
SPX makes a more complex wave B. As the character of the current wave down is not very clear, there is a substantial chance for this one.
The purple/red chances are still close to 50/50 and we are looking for a confirmation in the next few days.
MID-LONG TERM FORECAST:
(copy from the previous two weekly analyses)
Expect SP500 to move lower in February, most likely in the second half.
Targets: $3850-3250, or 20-33% loss off the top.
Minimal target – $3850 or 20% loss.
Short Term Forecast:
(copy from Monday)
The indices are likely to move mostly horizontally or slightly upwards in the next 1-2 days. Expect the move downwards resumed after this pause.
From the Monthly forecast on January 30:
The indices could rally in the next 1-2 weeks, the rally could possibly experience many unexpected movements (see-saw).
Short Term Target: $4500-4680.
Keep in mind that this is an attempt to forecast a wave B, the most unpredictable among the corrective waves.
Link to the Weekly Analyses
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