This path for #Ethereum was forecasted for the subscribers in the middle of November. As you can observe, the accuracy was exceptional for the mid/long term move. Follow @InvestingAngles and we can help to keep your #crypto and not only portfolio afloat in both a bear and bull markets.
This is the same chart now.
This weekly overview (open, no subscription required) contains:
– a discussion on the daily, weekly, and monthly candles and technical events;
– a long term Elliott Wave forecast;
– a short term EW chart and targets.
This post is part of the Weekly Analyses series that InvestingAngles offers to the followers and subscribers. The series covers US major indices – SP500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Russell 2000; VIX, DXY, gold & silver, GDX, natural gas, oil, Bitcoin and Ethereum, and some large cap stocks.
The monthly candles were discussed in details in the monthly analysis and they remain bearish. As the end of February is getting closer, it is worth noting that a closure below the January’s low would be extremely bearish.
Also, from the technical perspective, the monthly MACD is about to cross its signal line and the histogram is about to turn negative. These events would support a long bearish path.
The weekly candle (middle chart) is a standard bearish continuation candle. During the week, the price was rejected and fell below 8 EMA and 50 MA lines. The trend continues to be bearish and is supported by the majority of indicators that I track.
While ETH could move horizontally for another week or two, a move downwards is more probable.
ETH continues to print bearish daily candles and there is no bullish signal for now. Two days ago ETH made a 100/200 DMA bearish “death” cross.
For a reference, when the event of such magnitude happened in May 2018, Ethereum lost 88% in the following 220 days.
Perhaps this time is different.
I split the bearish and bullish paths into two long term charts, but both remain unchanged for now.
ETH completed a Super Cycle wave (I) and wave A of (II), working on wave B of (II). Waves two are the most unpredictable and can retrace 0.5-0.9 of wave one. If history any guide, the Cycle wave II in 2019 retraced 94%. Wave (II) could repeat the scenario – in this case, ETH might fall to $300.
In light of the “death” cross statistics in 2018, these numbers are not as abnormal as it seems.
ETH has completed wave C of IV. As the wave off the bottom looks corrective for now, the only possibility to work this count is as an Ending Diagonal for wave V.
This zoomed in chart hosts both red and blue possible paths. There is also one more possible count that was explained in details in yesterday’s Bitcoin analysis. Once ETH makes a new low, the count would be open. As the charts for BTC and ETH are somewhat similar, the perspectives can be viewed here:
The odds are strong bearish for ETH on the monthly, weekly and daily frames. The 100/200 DMA “death” cross reinforces the odds.
ETH needs to produce a strong bullish formation on the weekly frame to warrant a reversal. So far there has been no such event on the daily/weekly frames.
The daily events are monitored and discussed daily in the Bitcoin Daily Analyses @InvestingAngles (subscription required).
Latest BITCOIN Weekly Analysis: